Thursday, March 31, 2022
Ukrainian forces conducted several local counterattacks around Kyiv, in northeastern Ukraine, and toward Kherson on March 31, successfully pressuring Russian forces and seeking to disrupt ongoing Russian troop rotations.
Russian efforts to redeploy damaged units from the Kyiv and Sumy axes to eastern Ukraine are unlikely to enable Russian forces to conduct major gains.
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian forces successfully conducted local counterattacks around Kyiv, towards Sumy, and in Kherson Oblast and will likely take further territory—particularly northwest and east of Kyiv—in the coming days.
Russia is withdrawing elements of its damaged forces around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy for redeployment to eastern Ukraine, but these units are unlikely to provide a decisive shift in Russian combat power.
Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian assaults throughout Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and Russian forces failed to take territory in the past 24 hours.
Russian forces continue to steadily advance in Mariupol. Russia’s preplanned spring draft will begin on April 1 and does not appear abnormal from Russia’s typical conscription cycle.
Newly drafted conscripts will not provide Russia with additional combat power for many months.
The Kremlin is likely accelerating efforts to establish quasi-state entities to govern occupied Ukrainian territory.
