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We give a diagram of a model for predicting outcomes of the Ukraine war against Russian invasion, identify in the model the keys to possible outcomes of the war, infer what a total victory on Ukraine's terms would mean and review a few lessons from history. Keys to Ukraine war outcomes Ukraine can achieve sustained 1:5 casualty ratio (to be adjusted), i.e. for 1 Ukraine casualty there are 5 Russian casualty, and certain equipment destruction ratio (to be calculated) Ukraine can drive Russia out of the targeted territories, example pre 2014, or pre 2022 Russia internally can not continue due to resources, econ, social and political combined conditions Ukraine internally can continue with combined resources, econ, social and political strengths The allies, NATO, AUKUS, Japan, South Korea can continue to support Ukraine with a win as objective instead of not losing The allies, NATO, AUKUS, Japan, South Korea can continue to maintain & enhance sanction on Russia and its allies to realize 3 & 4 The allies of Russia can not sustain the support for Russia to negate 1 or 2 The allies of Russia can not sanction & sabotage Ukraine and its allies strongly & long enough to make 4 false Russia and its allies can not stir the situation elsewhere, Taiwan strait, middle east, pandemic, cyber, in the world severe enough to make 5 & 6 false The outcome will be in proportion to the keys. On keys 1~9 all true, Ukraine will win on its terms. Implications • A total victory on Ukraine’s term will • Expand NATO to including Ukraine, already a EU member by then • Deter any future attempt of aggression by any dictator countries • Transform Russia, or the splits, for the better • Maintain peace in Taiwan strait • Maintain peace in middle east by removing support for those terrorist countries • Propel changes in dictator countries • Ensure peace, prosperity in int’l order for longer than WW2 to now • The U.S. president who lead to this outcome will be like FDR, Reagan Lessons from history Looking back, had Truman continued supporting the Chinese Nationalist KMT to defeat the CCP (that was armed by Stalin with the American financed Soviet equipment), there would have not been Korean war, Vietnam war and subsequent major wars in Asia. Had Obama moved to including Ukraine in NATO right after Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea or leveraging that to force Putin to withdraw, there would have been no Russia's 2022 invasion. President Biden, this time, has trapped Putin in this mud pit, and tightened ropes/screws on Xi through his masterful use of combined allies power.  If the 2024 elected administration can follow Biden's path to turn all 9 keys true, it will be the best outcome.

Mechanism The new Standing Committee will be finally decided by the retired Standing Committee and the current Standing Committee through consultation and consensus. 🌞 (Indicates that the following content is a supplement or change to the previous edition) When there is a problem in forming a consensus, there is a precedent for the Standing Committee to preside over an expanded meeting to establish a consensus or even vote. These are common practices and there is no written regulation. There may be no express provisions on what to do if a consensus cannot be reached on the new standing committee, especially if the current general secretary insists on refusing to quit in violation of the party constitution. The current situation has never occurred before. The Xi faction will think that this loophole can be exploited to seek re-election. The military will in principle support the resolutions formed by the mechanism. In the absence of a consensus, there is no express provision for what the military should do. 🌞 The upper echelons of the military, that is, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, members of the Central Military Commission, commanders of the theater, etc. will make choices based on their own and family interests. For most people, it is the line and policy of reform and opening up that bring benefits to themselves and their families, and nothing else. Situation 🌞 The big international and domestic situation is not conducive to Xi's re-election. Previously, when the international and domestic situation was much better, Jiang Zemin resigned from two positions on time and resigned as chairman of the Central Military Commission two years later, setting a precedent for peaceful handover of power. His successor, Hu Jintao, resigned on time when China's international and domestic situation reached its peak after the reform and opening up, setting a precedent for the peaceful transfer of all power. The current situation in China is the lowest since the reform and opening up, and the foundation and basis for Xi's re-election is much lower than that of Xi's two predecessors. The mainstream practice in the world is that for the sake of the country and the people, leaders who do well resign on time, and leaders who do poorly resign early. No leader who has done poorly has sought re-election (the country with the dynastic system is not in the mainstream of the world). Since the Beidaihe meeting or earlier, the consensus among incumbent and retired Standing Committee members is that Xi will step down on time. Xi Jinping proposed to stay in power at a meeting in Beidaihe, but was met with overwhelming opposition. Xi probably said on the surface that he would step down according to the chapter. At the same time, Xi Jinping has not given up on fighting for re-election and trying to gain security guarantees using advance-to-retreat tactic just in case he fails to continue in power. His method: use the propaganda machine he controls to create public opinion; use the power of the Xi faction to control domestic society through the epidemic (high probability approach: release poisoning -> implement zero policy -> affiliated companies operate vaccines to obtain income -> control society); provoke the Taiwan Strait incidents internationally to control society and increase the possibility of re-election through martial law; and support Putin's Russian aggression against Ukraine. The factions opposed to Xi's re-election have formed a united front and have been persuading Xi himself and members of the Xi faction through various channels to persuade him to step down on time. There are disagreements within the Xi faction over whether they should life-and-death struggle to stay in power. There are signs that Xi Jinping is uncertain. 🌞 Since September 5th or earlier, there have been signs that the Xi faction has unified opinions to a certain extent and has stepped up efforts to create a situation for Xi to be re-elected. The signals of Xi not being re-elected No support from retired Standing Committee members, no public support from majority of current Standing Committee members, and what's being heard is expressions of disapproval. 🌞 There is no sign that the majority of Politburo members support Xi's re-election. There are signs that retired Standing Committee members and their factions have stepped up their lobbying efforts against re-election campaign by Xi and his main supporters. 🌞 Xi's ill-timed new promotion of Wang Qiang as general and his appointment as the commander of the Northern Theater Command to replace the current Northern Theater Commander General Li Qiaoming, who is considered young and reform-minded, adds weight to the anti-reelection effort by the opposition coalition with military. No support from retired or current Central Military Commission (CMC) vice-chairmen or CMC members. The latest: When Xi Jinping summoned several theater commanders to Beijing as the chairman of the Central Military Commission, they shied back and only sent their deputies to report to Xi in Beijing. Implications: 1. Fear of being arrested when entering Beijing; 2. Consulted with each other; 3. Avoid being forced to choose side to support Xi’s re-election; 4. Unwilling to provoke trouble with the neighboring countries for Xi’s re-election The People's Daily press release issued by the Politburo for the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China did not mention "4422" (four self-confidence, four awareness, two maintenance and two establishment, which are key indicator phrases for implicit support for Xi’s remaining in power), but five in one (Hu Jintao's language), and summing up experience. 🌞 Li Keqiang presided over the economic work, and the opposition strengthened its resistance to Xi's interference on the reform and opening-up line and policies through many aspects of government and party affairs 🌞 On the party and official media, when "4422-zation" appears, then "de-4422-zation" counters The 4422 and other touting statements in the 10-year retrospective by the provincial party newspaper where Xi faction is in power are filtered out by the People's Daily Most central ministerial and provincial officials did not support Xi's re-election Rumors about Xi's overseas visit have been falsified one by one. On September 4th, it was reported that People's Congress Chairman Li Zhanshu will visit the four countries, and the task of this visit to Russia and South Korea should have been undertaken by Xi. The event of Li's replacement of Xi's visit implies that it is not conducive to Xi's re-election 🌞 Ukraine's recent counter-offensive and recapture of the lost territory in eastern Ukraine led to several Russian regional parliaments proposing Putin's resignation, indicating that the expansion of Ukraine's victory will lead to the festering of Putin's ruling base, and a comprehensive victory in Ukraine will lead to Putin's ruling foundation's collapse. This will lead to the failure of Xi's intention to form an axis with Putin's Russia, and will prove the colossal mistake and failure of Xi's foreign policy. This situation is not conducive to Xi seeking re-election, but is conducive to the success of the opposition's anti re-election campaign The United States, its allies and other countries that recognize universal values have expressed distrust of Xi's re-election in various ways, and have increasingly strengthened their actions to safeguard the security of the Taiwan Strait and protect Taiwan. On September 5, Truss won the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party. After taking office as prime minister, she will continue Johnson's support-Ukraine policy internationally, and strengthen the practices of the Five Eyes Alliance and NATO to safeguard the security of the Taiwan Strait, and increase the possibility of Xi's failure to invade Taiwan by force. This is counterproductive to Xi's re-election On August 31, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights issued a report: China may have been committing "crimes against humanity" against ethnic minorities in Xinjiang Influential groups at home oppose Xi's re-election. The 12-point appeal from the domestic intellectual community, issued on September 5, is the latest sign of opposition to Xi's attempt for re-election The series of extreme actions of Xi all-out struggle for re-election indicate that according to the mechanism and rules (that is, the conventional practice as dictated by the mechanism) should have not sought to be re-elected Signals of Xi's all-out fighting for re-election (rising) 🌞 The report of the CCP Politburo meeting on September 9 can be understood as an intention to imply Xi’s re-election, and it can also be understood as the opposition has removed many of the more obvious words. 🌞 Work hard to win re-election by controlling the qualifications and procedures of delegates to the 20th Congress, threatening to intimidate voters, etc. According to the party constitution, it is equivalent to seeking re-election through a coup. 🌞 Create the basis and reasons for Xi's re-election and try to persuade retired executives and voters, which says that in the face of future turmoil, only Xi can protect the interests of the core group, through returning to the road of class struggle, and commanding all walks under party's political line, going back to planned economy, and robbing the rich to alleviate poverty and controling the Chinese society with digital grids 🌞 On the party and official media, when the de-"4422-zation" takes hold, the "4422-zation" happens again Control society through the epidemic domestically using power in hands of Xi faction Support Putin's ongoing war on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, cooperate with Russia, continue to increase the threat to East Asian security Continue to provoke incidents in the Taiwan Strait, create the conditions for control of society 🌞 Politburo Standing member Wang Huning mentioned 4422 in his public speeches on August 31 and September 2, and Standing Committee member Zhao Leji mentioned 4422 in his public speech on September 8, which can be understood as a hidden tendency to support Xi’s re-election, which is close to but not guaranteed to be a yes vote in support 🌞 Xi Jinping promoted Wang Qiang as general and appointed as the commander of the Northern Theater Command, untimely dismissal of the current Northern Theater Commander General Li Qiaoming, who was considered to be young and reform-minded, and his subsequent whereabouts are unknown Provincial and ministerial-level officials of Xi faction publicly created public opinion to support Xi’s re-election. Chen Xi, Principal of the Central Party School and Chief of the Central Organization Department, mentioned "4422" in the school's fall quarter opening speech on September 2. The mouthpiece controlled by the Xi faction has increased its intensity and breadth to publicize in overseas media that Xi will be re-elected as a "great leader" Xi faction fears being held accountable. The first thing they fear is to be held accountable for being suspected of conspiring to release the virus, playing with the virus to disrupt the international order, and destroying the "one country, two systems" United Nations-certified Sino-British agreement on Hong Kong, using violence to suppress Hong Kong to implement the national security law, and suspected of having committed crimes against humanity to ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and control domestic society, 🌞persecuting cadres and related groups who hold opposing opinions in the name of anti-corruption, persecuting private business owners and related groups for arbitrary reasons, persecuting population groups who have been harmed by the epidemic and unscientific extreme epidemic prevention policies, and persecuting those who have suffered damages and losses due to economic downturn, etc. This is highly likely the top reason for Xi's all-out fight for re-election Xi's own character and behavior trajectory Signals of Xi unsure if he wants to fight for re-election (dropping) Use intelligence channels to understand whether the United States and its allies will defend Taiwan in the event of a future Chinese invasion of Taiwan Uncertain whether the situation of international and domestic opposition can be effectively suppressed, transferred or weakened once re-elected for three positions Uncertain about the outcome of Putin's Russian invasion of Ukraine and its implications for future Chinese invasions of Taiwan Uncertain about how the world will trace the origin of the virus outbreak once he is re-elected to three positions, especially whether he will receive a detention, subpoena or be hit when he travels abroad as president of the country Xi is uncertain about whether, after remaining in power with three positions, it will be successful to follow the road of North Korea's closing border and locking-down the country and to isolate China itself from the mainstream of human civilization in the world Endgame 🌞 The probability of Xi being re-elected to three positions fluctuates at 50% (General Secretary of the Party, Chairman of the Military Commission, and President of the State) Xi can only be re-elected to three positions through a coup, with probability > 90%. That is, the probability of Xi being re-elected to three positions through the normal process of the mechanism is less than 10% 🌞 The possibility of Xi resigning as party general secretary fluctuates at 50% After Xi resigns as party general secretary, he is re-elected as both chairman of the Military Commission and president of the country, with possibility <50% Xi will only be re-elected as either the Chairman of the Military Commission or the President of the State, with a probability of ~50%. The possibility of being re-elected as the chairman of the Military Commission is greater than that of the chairman of the country. The decision-making mechanism should realize that if Xi is re-elected as the latter, the CCP will be placed in a passive position that is difficult to reverse when the origin of the virus is tracked down by the world in the future 🌞 The possibility of Xi seeking re-election through a coup is more than 2/3, and the resistance and prevention he will receive is no less than the strength of his seeking re-election. The possibility of a counter-coup, that is, a coup that removes Xi from power, is no less likely than the possibility that Xi seeks re-election through a coup. The probability of success of the coup is about 50%, and the probability of success of the counter-coup is complementary to the probability of success of the coup If Xi is re-elected to three positions through a coup d’etat, the possibility of a coup d’etat by bureaucrats, military and civilians that overthrow Xi will increase to > 2/3; if Putin’s invasion of Ukraine fails completely at this time, and a coup d’etat that overthrows Xi will occur, the possibility will increase to > 4/ 5; in the event of a military invasion or blockade of Taiwan under the above circumstances, the possibility of a coup to overthrow Xi will increase to 9/10 If Xi is only re-elected as the chairman of the Military Commission, he will do his best to win back all power, the possibility is no less than 9/10 🌞 The status of Xi Jinping after the 20th Congress: Soft landing: Resign three positions or two positions including the party general secretary and resign all on time, the family can be preserved. Xi's forced resignation is more likely than voluntary resignation Hard landing: Continue three or two positions, domestically take the path of instigating class struggle, placing party political line as top priority over all other aspects, implementing planned economy, robbing the rich to alleviate the poor and end up all becoming poor, externally seek the annexation of Taiwan by force, and form an axis with Putin's Russia, the situation at home and abroad leads to domestic turmoil and even civil war. All combined will result in the coup d'état and in his family being difficult to preserve. The extreme case of a hard landing is the end for the Romanian dictator Ceausescu couple The odds are that Xi's choices end up falling within the confines of a forced resignation and a hard landing The analysis and forecast above will be updated as events develop. A note on the method of analysis. The analysis is solely based open source intel. Events are filtered into “dry goods”, i.e., max information content, which is then fed into a proprietary framework for processing. There are three major components in an output quantitative likelihood in the analysis: system output, empirical estimate and strategic consideration.

Mechanism The new Standing Committee will be finally decided by the retired Standing Committee and the current Standing Committee through consultation and consensus. There may be no express provisions on what to do if a consensus cannot be reached on the new standing committee, especially if the current general secretary insists on refusing to quit in violation of the party constitution. The current situation has never occurred before. The Xi faction will think that this loophole can be exploited to seek re-election. The military will in principle support the resolutions formed by the mechanism. In the absence of a consensus, there is no express provision for what the military should do. Situation Since the Beidaihe meeting or earlier, the consensus among incumbent and retired Standing Committee members is that Xi will step down on time. Xi Jinping proposed to stay in power at a meeting in Beidaihe, but was met with overwhelming opposition. Xi probably said on the surface that he would step down according to the chapter. At the same time, Xi Jinping has not given up on fighting for re-election and trying to gain security guarantees using advance-to-retreat tactic just in case he fails to continue in power. His method: use the propaganda machine he controls to create public opinion; use the power of the Xi faction to control domestic society through the epidemic (high probability approach: release poisoning -> implement zero policy -> affiliated companies operate vaccines to obtain income -> control society); provoke the Taiwan Strait incidents internationally to control society and increase the possibility of re-election thorugh martial law; and support Putin's Russian aggression against Ukraine. The factions opposed to Xi's re-election have formed a united front and have been persuading Xi himself and members of the Xi faction through various channels to persuade him to step down on time. There are disagreements within the Xi faction over whether they should life-and-death struggle to stay in power. There are signs that Xi Jinping is uncertain. The signals of Xi not being re-elected No support from retired Standing Committee members, no public support from current Standing Committee members other than himself, and what's being heard is expressions of disapproval. Politburo Standing Committee Wang member Huning's public speeches on August 31 and September 2 can be understood as implicit support No support from retired or current Central Military Commission (CMC) vice-chairmen or CMC members. The latest: When Xi Jinping summoned several theater commanders to Beijing as the chairman of the Central Military Commission, they shied back and only sent their deputies to report to Xi in Beijing. Implications: 1. Fear of being arrested when entering Beijing; 2. Consulted with each other; 3. Avoid being forced to choose side to support Xi’s re-election; 4. Unwilling to provoke trouble with the neighboring countries for Xi’s re-election The People's Daily press release issued by the Politburo for the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China did not mention "4422" (four self-confidence, four awareness, two maintenance and two establishment, which are key indicator phrases for implicit support for Xi’s remaining in power), but five in one (Hu Jintao's language), and summing up experience. Li Keqiang presided over the drafting of the 20th National Congress report (unconfirmed information) and economic work The 4422 and other touting statements in the 10-year retrospective by the provincial party newspaper where Xi faction is in power are filtered out by the People's Daily Most central ministerial and provincial officials did not support Xi's re-election Rumors about Xi's overseas visit have been falsified one by one. On September 4th, it was reported that People's Congress Chairman Li Zhanshu will visit the four countries, and the task of this visit to Russia and South Korea should have been undertaken by Xi. The event of Li's replacement of Xi's visit implies that it is not conducive to Xi's re-election The United States, its allies and other countries that recognize universal values have expressed distrust of Xi's re-election in various ways, and have increasingly strengthened their actions to safeguard the security of the Taiwan Strait and protect Taiwan. On September 5, Truss won the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party. After taking office as prime minister, she will continue Johnson's support-Ukraine policy internationally, and strengthen the practices of the Five Eyes Alliance and NATO to safeguard the security of the Taiwan Strait, and increase the possibility of Xi's failure to invade Taiwan by force. This is counterproductive to Xi's re-election On August 31, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights issued a report: China may have been committing "crimes against humanity" against ethnic minorities in Xinjiang Influential groups at home oppose Xi's re-election. The 12-point appeal from the domestic intellectual community, issued on September 5, is the latest sign of opposition to Xi's attempt for re-election The series of extreme actions of Xi all-out struggle for re-election indicate that according to the mechanism and rules (that is, the conventional practice as dictated by the mechanism) should not be re-elected Signals of Xi's all-out fighting for re-election Control society through the epidemic domestically using power in hands of Xi faction Support Putin's ongoing war on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, cooperate with Russia, continue to increase the threat to East Asian security Continue to provoke incidents in the Taiwan Strait, create the conditions for control of society Wang Huning, member of the Politburo Standing Committee, mentioned 4422 in his public speeches on August 31 and September 2 Chen Xi, Principal of the Central Party School and Chief of the Central Organization Department, mentioned "4422" in the school's fall quarter opening speech on September 2. Provincial and ministerial-level officials of Xi faction create public opinion to support Xi's re-election The mouthpiece controlled by the Xi faction has increased its intensity and breadth to publicize in overseas media that Xi will be re-elected as a "great leader" Xi faction fears being held accountable. The first thing they fear is to be held accountable for being suspected of conspiring to release the virus, playing with the virus to disrupt the international order, and destroying the "one country, two systems" United Nations-certified Sino-British agreement on Hong Kong, using violence to suppress Hong Kong to implement the national security law, and suspected of having committed crimes against humanity to ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and control domestic society. This is highly likely the first reason for Xi's all-out fight for re-election Xi's own character and behavior trajectory Signals of Xi unsure if he wants to fight for re-election Use intelligence channels to understand whether the United States and its allies will defend Taiwan in the event of a future Chinese invasion of Taiwan Uncertain whether the situation of international and domestic opposition can be effectively suppressed, transferred or weakened once re-elected for three positions Uncertain about the outcome of Putin's Russian invasion of Ukraine and its implications for future Chinese invasions of Taiwan Uncertain about how the world will trace the origin of the virus outbreak once he is re-elected to three positions, especially whether he will receive a detention, subpoena or be hit when he travels abroad as president of the country Xi is uncertain about whether, after remaining in power with three positions, it will be successful to follow the road of North Korea's closing border and locking-down the country and to isolate China itself from the mainstream of human civilization in the world Endgame Xi will be re-elected to three positions (General Secretary of the Party, Chairman of the Military Commission, and President of the State), with possibility of <50% Xi can only be re-elected to three positions through a coup, with probability > 90%. That is, the probability of Xi being re-elected to three positions through the normal process of the mechanism is less than 10% Xi resigns as party general secretary, with probability > 50% After Xi resigns as party general secretary, he is re-elected as both chairman of the Military Commission and president of the country, with possibility <50% Xi will only be re-elected as either the Chairman of the Military Commission or the President of the State, with a probability of ~50%. The possibility of being re-elected as the chairman of the Military Commission is greater than that of the chairman of the country. The decision-making mechanism should realize that if Xi is re-elected as the latter, the CCP will be placed in a passive position that is difficult to reverse when the origin of the virus is tracked down by the world in the future If Xi is re-elected to three positions through a coup d’etat, the possibility of a coup d’etat by bureaucrats, military and civilians that overthrow Xi will increase to > 2/3; if Putin’s invasion of Ukraine fails completely at this time, and a coup d’etat that overthrows Xi will occur, the possibility will increase to > 4/ 5; in the event of a military invasion or blockade of Taiwan under the above circumstances, the possibility of a coup to overthrow Xi will increase to 9/10 If Xi is only re-elected as the chairman of the Military Commission, he will do his best to win back all power, the possibility is no less than 9/10 The analysis and forecast above will be updated as events develop.

Mechanism The new Standing Committee will be finally decided by the retired and the current CCP Politburo Standing Committee through consultation and consensus. There may be no express provisions on what to do if a consensus cannot be reached on the new standing committee, especially if the current general secretary insists on refusing to quit in violation of the party constitution. The current situation has never occurred before. The Xi faction will think that this loophole can be exploited to seek re-election. The military will in principle support the resolutions formed by the mechanism. In the absence of a consensus, there is no express provision for what the military should do. Situation Since the Beidaihe meeting or earlier, the consensus among incumbent and retired Standing Committee members is that Xi will step down on time. Xi Jinping proposed to stay in power at a meeting in Beidaihe, but was met with overwhelming opposition. Xi probably said on the surface that he would step down according to the chapter. At the same time, Xi Jinping has not given up on fighting for re-election and trying to gain security guarantees using advance-to-retreat tactic just in case he fails to continue in power. His method: use the propaganda machine he controls to create public opinion; use the power of the Xi faction to control domestic society through the epidemic (high probability approach: release poisoning -> implement zero policy -> affiliated companies operate vaccines to obtain income -> control society); provoke the Taiwan Strait incidents internationally to control society and increase the possibility of re-election thorugh martial law; and support Putin's Russian aggression against Ukraine. The factions opposed to Xi's re-election have formed a united front and have been persuading Xi himself and members of the Xi faction through various channels to persuade him to step down on time. There are disagreements within the Xi faction over whether they should life-and-death struggle to stay in power. There are signs that Xi Jinping is uncertain. The signals of Xi not being re-elected No support from retired Standing Committee members, no public support from current Standing Committee members other than himself, and what's being heard is expressions of disapproval No support from retired or current Central Military Commission (CMC) vice-chairmen or CMC members The People's Daily press release issued by the Politburo for the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China did not mention "4422" (four self-confidence, four awareness, two maintenance and two establishment), but five in one (Hu Jintao's language), and summing up experience. Li Keqiang presided over the drafting of the 20th National Congress report (unconfirmed information) and economic work Most central ministerial and provincial officials did not support Xi's re-election Rumors about Xi's overseas visit have been falsified one by one The United States and its allies express distrust of Xi's re-election in various ways Influential groups at home oppose Xi's re-election Signals of Xi's all-out fighting for re-election Using power Control society through the epidemic domestically Support Putin's ongoing war on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, cooperate with Russia Continue to provoke incidents in the Taiwan Strait Provincial and ministerial-level officials of Xi faction create public opinion to support Xi's re-election Xi faction fears being held accountable Xi's own character and behavior trajectory Signals of Xi unsure if he wants to fight for re-election Use intelligence channels to understand whether the United States and its allies will defend Taiwan in the event of a future Chinese invasion of Taiwan Uncertain whether the situation of international and domestic opposition can be effectively suppressed, transferred or weakened once re-elected for three positions Endgame Xi will be re-elected to three positions (General Secretary of the Party, Chairman of the Military Commission, and President of the State), with possibility of <50% Xi can only be re-elected to three positions through a coup, with probability > 90% Xi resigns as party general secretary, with probability > 50% Xi resigns as party general secretary but is re-elected as chairman of the Military Commission and president of the country, with possibility <50% Xi will only be re-elected as either the Chairman of the Military Commission or the President of the State, with a probability of ~50% If Xi is re-elected to three positions through a coup d’etat, the possibility of a coup d’etat by bureaucrats, military and civilians that overthrow Xi will increase to > 2/3; if Putin’s invasion of Ukraine fails completely at this time, and a coup d’etat that overthrows Xi will occur, the possibility will increase to > 4/ 5 The analysis and forecast above will be updated as events develop.

Thomas Friedman recently interviewed John Arquilla, the author of a next-generation treatise on warfare, Bitskreig: The New Challenge of Cyber Warfare. “In that book, I outlined the three new rules of war, all of which I am seeing being employed by the Ukrainians,” he explained. “The first is that many and small beats large and heavy. The Ukrainians are operating in squad-level units armed with smart weapons, and these are able to disrupt far larger formations and attack slow-moving, loud helicopters and such. So even though they’re outnumbered by the Russians, the Ukrainians have many, many more units of action — usually between eight and 10 soldiers in size.” The second rule of modern warfare playing out in Ukraine, he said, “is that finding always beats flanking. If you can locate the enemy first, you can take him out. And especially if the enemy is made up of a few large units, like a 40-mile-long convoy of tanks and armored personnel carriers, you’re going to hammer the hell out of them with your small squads, without having to outflank them with an equal-sized force.” The third rule of new-age warfare playing out in Ukraine, said Arquilla, is that “swarming always beats surging.” He explained: “War is not just a numbers game anymore. You don’t need big numbers to swarm the opponent with a lot of small smart weapons. I am sure you’ve seen some of the videos of these Russian tanks and columns, where suddenly one tank gets taken out at the front and then another at the rear, so the Russians can’t maneuver, and then they just get picked off.” One of the reasons they’ve had so many generals get killed is that at the tactical level, they don’t have people who are empowered to make those quick decisions in a firefight; only general officers can, so they [generals] had to come down close to the front and do things that lieutenants and sergeants in the American military routinely do.” So this is the fourth rule of modern warfare: decentralized always beats centralized. This means the loss of a unit’s commander can't bring down the responsiveness of an area’s warfighting. So take note: Rule #1: Many and small beats large and heavy. Rule #2: Finding beats flanking. Rule #3: Swarming beats surging. Rule #4: Decentralized beats centralized. See more