Mechanism
The new Standing Committee will be finally decided by the retired and the current CCP Politburo Standing Committee through consultation and consensus.
There may be no express provisions on what to do if a consensus cannot be reached on the new standing committee, especially if the current general secretary insists on refusing to quit in violation of the party constitution. The current situation has never occurred before. The Xi faction will think that this loophole can be exploited to seek re-election.
The military will in principle support the resolutions formed by the mechanism. In the absence of a consensus, there is no express provision for what the military should do.
Situation
Since the Beidaihe meeting or earlier, the consensus among incumbent and retired Standing Committee members is that Xi will step down on time. Xi Jinping proposed to stay in power at a meeting in Beidaihe, but was met with overwhelming opposition. Xi probably said on the surface that he would step down according to the chapter.
At the same time, Xi Jinping has not given up on fighting for re-election and trying to gain security guarantees using advance-to-retreat tactic just in case he fails to continue in power. His method: use the propaganda machine he controls to create public opinion; use the power of the Xi faction to control domestic society through the epidemic (high probability approach: release poisoning -> implement zero policy -> affiliated companies operate vaccines to obtain income -> control society); provoke the Taiwan Strait incidents internationally to control society and increase the possibility of re-election thorugh martial law; and support Putin's Russian aggression against Ukraine.
The factions opposed to Xi's re-election have formed a united front and have been persuading Xi himself and members of the Xi faction through various channels to persuade him to step down on time.
There are disagreements within the Xi faction over whether they should life-and-death struggle to stay in power. There are signs that Xi Jinping is uncertain.
The signals of Xi not being re-elected
No support from retired Standing Committee members, no public support from current Standing Committee members other than himself, and what's being heard is expressions of disapproval
No support from retired or current Central Military Commission (CMC) vice-chairmen or CMC members
The People's Daily press release issued by the Politburo for the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China did not mention "4422" (four self-confidence, four awareness, two maintenance and two establishment), but five in one (Hu Jintao's language), and summing up experience.
Li Keqiang presided over the drafting of the 20th National Congress report (unconfirmed information) and economic work
Most central ministerial and provincial officials did not support Xi's re-election
Rumors about Xi's overseas visit have been falsified one by one
The United States and its allies express distrust of Xi's re-election in various ways
Influential groups at home oppose Xi's re-election
Signals of Xi's all-out fighting for re-election
Using power Control society through the epidemic domestically
Support Putin's ongoing war on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, cooperate with Russia
Continue to provoke incidents in the Taiwan Strait
Provincial and ministerial-level officials of Xi faction create public opinion to support Xi's re-election
Xi faction fears being held accountable
Xi's own character and behavior trajectory
Signals of Xi unsure if he wants to fight for re-election
Use intelligence channels to understand whether the United States and its allies will defend Taiwan in the event of a future Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Uncertain whether the situation of international and domestic opposition can be effectively suppressed, transferred or weakened once re-elected for three positions
Endgame
Xi will be re-elected to three positions (General Secretary of the Party, Chairman of the Military Commission, and President of the State), with possibility of <50%
Xi can only be re-elected to three positions through a coup, with probability > 90%
Xi resigns as party general secretary, with probability > 50%
Xi resigns as party general secretary but is re-elected as chairman of the Military Commission and president of the country, with possibility <50%
Xi will only be re-elected as either the Chairman of the Military Commission or the President of the State, with a probability of ~50%
If Xi is re-elected to three positions through a coup d’etat, the possibility of a coup d’etat by bureaucrats, military and civilians that overthrow Xi will increase to > 2/3; if Putin’s invasion of Ukraine fails completely at this time, and a coup d’etat that overthrows Xi will occur, the possibility will increase to > 4/ 5
The analysis and forecast above will be updated as events develop.
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