We give a diagram of a model for predicting outcomes of the Ukraine war against Russian invasion, identify in the model the keys to possible outcomes of the war, infer what a total victory on Ukraine's terms would mean and review a few lessons from history.
Keys to Ukraine war outcomes
Ukraine can achieve sustained 1:5 casualty ratio (to be adjusted), i.e. for 1 Ukraine casualty there are 5 Russian casualty, and certain equipment destruction ratio (to be calculated)
Ukraine can drive Russia out of the targeted territories, example pre 2014, or pre 2022
Russia internally can not continue due to resources, econ, social and political combined conditions
Ukraine internally can continue with combined resources, econ, social and political strengths
The allies, NATO, AUKUS, Japan, South Korea can continue to support Ukraine with a win as objective instead of not losing
The allies, NATO, AUKUS, Japan, South Korea can continue to maintain & enhance sanction on Russia and its allies to realize 3 & 4
The allies of Russia can not sustain the support for Russia to negate 1 or 2
The allies of Russia can not sanction & sabotage Ukraine and its allies strongly & long enough to make 4 false
Russia and its allies can not stir the situation elsewhere, Taiwan strait, middle east, pandemic, cyber, in the world severe enough to make 5 & 6 false
The outcome will be in proportion to the keys.
On keys 1~9 all true, Ukraine will win on its terms.
Implications
• A total victory on Ukraine’s term will
• Expand NATO to including Ukraine, already a EU member by then
• Deter any future attempt of aggression by any dictator countries
• Transform Russia, or the splits, for the better
• Maintain peace in Taiwan strait
• Maintain peace in middle east by removing support for those terrorist countries
• Propel changes in dictator countries
• Ensure peace, prosperity in int’l order for longer than WW2 to now
• The U.S. president who lead to this outcome will be like FDR, Reagan
Lessons from history
Looking back, had Truman continued supporting the Chinese Nationalist KMT to defeat the CCP (that was armed by Stalin with the American financed Soviet equipment), there would have not been Korean war, Vietnam war and subsequent major wars in Asia.
Had Obama moved to including Ukraine in NATO right after Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea or leveraging that to force Putin to withdraw, there would have been no Russia's 2022 invasion.
President Biden, this time, has trapped Putin in this mud pit, and tightened ropes/screws on Xi through his masterful use of combined allies power.
If the 2024 elected administration can follow Biden's path to turn all 9 keys true, it will be the best outcome.
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