Tuesday, March 29, 2022
The Russians have not yet abandoned their attacks on Kyiv. Russia continues to reinforce its efforts in Ukraine’s northeast likely attempting to link its positions southeast of Kharkiv and Izyum with its forces in Luhansk Oblast. The Russian advance in Mariupol continues to gain ground, and Russian forces have likely bisected or even trisected the city. Russian operations in southeastern Ukraine have left large portions of Donetsk Oblast under Ukrainian control. Securing the boundaries of Donetsk Oblast along with the entirety of Luhansk Oblast will likely require a major offensive operation.
Key Takeaways
We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time.Russian forces continue to fight to hold their current front-line trace near the city, however, remaining dug into positions to the east, northwest, and west.
Russian forces withdrawing from the area around Kyiv appear to be moving north from behind the front line to positions in Belarus.
Russia is directing some reserves to the effort to connect gains southeast of Kharkiv and Izyum with its front line in Luhansk.
Ukrainian forces continue to defend in likely isolated pockets in Mariupol. The city will likely fall to the Russians within days.
A Russian offensive operation to take the rest of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast would be a significant undertaking.
It remains unclear if Russia can harvest enough combat power from Mariupol after securing the city or divert reinforcements from elsewhere on a large enough scale to complete it.
