Wednesday, March 30, 2022
Russia is withdrawing some elements of its forces around Kyiv into Belarus for likely redeployment to other axes of advance and did not conduct any offensive operations around the city in the past 24 hours, but Russian forces will likely continue to hold their forwardmost positions and shell Ukrainian forces and residential areas. Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian attacks in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the past 24 hours and Russian forces likely continued to take territory in Mariupol. Russian forces held their positions and did not conduct offensive operations throughout the rest of the country. Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol in the coming days but likely suffered high casualties taking the city, and Russian force generation efforts and the redeployment of damaged units from the Kyiv axis are increasingly unlikely to enable Russian forces to make rapid gains in the Donbas region.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend against limited Ukrainian counterattacks.
Russian forces are unlikely to give up their secured territory around the city and are continuing to dig in.
ISW can confirm Russia is withdrawing some units around Kyiv for likely redeployment to other axes of advance, but cannot confirm any changes in Russian force posture around Chernihiv as of this time.
Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours.
Elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army are redeploying to support Russian operations on Izyum, but are unlikely to take the city in the near future.
Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian assaults in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts.
Russian forces continued to take territory in Mariupol but are likely suffering high casualties.
