Endgames

Endgame of Russo-Ukraine War 俄烏戰爭怎收場？獨家專訪美前駐俄大使麥克弗爾

What does "Win in Ukraine" mean? #1 Russians back to pre-24 Feb, #2 all deported/kidnapped Ukrainians returned to Ukraine, #3 Russian military damaged enough to no longer threaten its neighbors, #4 Commitment by West to full restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty (Crimea, Donbas).

Imperial Reboot

In a previous thread I outlined three scenarios for the Russian future:

1. North Korea
2. Imperial Reboot
3. National Divorce

Last time I discussed North Korea (Putin stays in power). Now I'll reiterate its main points and then outline the Imperial Reboot

I see three plausible scenarios for the Russian future:

1. North Korea
2. Imperial Reboot
3. Jubilee

Since Ukraine is resolved to fight, the choice of a Russian historical track ultimately depends upon the resolve of the West. Today I'll outline the North Korea scenario

Ukrainians and the world’s democratic powers must work toward the only acceptable endgame.

Ukraine is a speed-chess version of the wars in Bosnia, Chechnya, and Syria, with the pieces on the board including nuclear weapons.

"Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine." "Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done" "A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom”

Whatever else Russia's Victory Day parade is supposed to represent, it won't be any sort of victory over Ukraine, regardless of the spin President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin will try to put on it, writes defence analyst Michael Clarke.

On #AxeFiles, former Amb. @McFaul
talks about Putin's tragic, massive miscalculations in Ukraine--and his fallback plan.

Retired Army General Curtis Michael Scaparrotti: Putin's ability to return "as a respectable leader on the world stage is done" and Russians will have to come to terms with the harm that's been done to them as a "nation among nations"