動能戰爭

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Lysychansk and conducted offensive operations to the south and southwest of the city.
Russian forces have likely not yet reached the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway on the ground but are denying Ukrainian forces use of it by continuing artillery and airstrikes against remaining Ukrainian positions along the road.
Russian forces focused on regrouping and improving their tactical positions north of Slovyansk.
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast and continued shelling Ukrainian positions north of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces conducted artillery and missile strikes along the Southern Axis.
Russian authorities continue efforts to expand the pool of recruits available to fight in Ukraine.

Key Takeaways

Russian troops made limited gains within the Lysychansk Oil Refinery and around Lysychansk.
Russian forces continued offensive operations to the south and east of Bakhmut and to the north of Slovyansk.
Russian forces continued efforts to regain control of settlements north of Kharkiv City.
Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to force Russian troops on the Southern Axis to prioritize defensive operations.
Russian occupation authorities took measures to ensure further economic and financial integration of occupied areas into the Russian system.

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities may be preparing to annex areas of southern Ukraine as the “Tavriia Gubernia” and that Russian authorities are setting conditions for annexation through preparing referenda in occupied areas.
Russian forces may be planning a false flag provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Lysychansk.
Russian forces made marginal gains east of Bakhmut along the E40 highway and may seek to prepare for a direct offensive on Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued offensive operations to advance on Slovyansk from the northwest near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.
Russian forces are continuing to engage in offensive operations north of Kharkiv City, indicating that the Kremlin has territorial ambitions beyond the Donbas that will continue to attrit manpower and equipment, potentially at the cost of offensive power on more critical axes of advance.
Russian forces continued to reinforce their defensive presence along the Southern Axis.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued to launch assault operations south and southwest of Lysychansk. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) officials claimed that Ukrainian forces had begun to withdraw from the city, but ISW cannot confirm these claims.
Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations north of Slovyansk and conducted spoiling attacks on settlements west of Izyum, likely to disrupt Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Russian forces failed to advance along the Kharkiv City-Belgorod highway and continued to undertake measures to hinder Ukrainian advances towards the international border or Izyum.
Ukrainian forces continued to launch counteroffensives north of Kherson City and reportedly liberated two settlements.
Russian forces continued to transfer military equipment and personnel east of Melitopol.
Russian occupation authorities are maintaining unsuccessful efforts to introduce ruble salary payments and set conditions to inflate electoral numbers in a future referendum.

Key Takeaways:

Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.
Russian forces made incremental advances southwest of Lysychansk near the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway but have not entirely severed Ukrainian lines of communication into Bakhmut.
Russian forces made measured advances during offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian offensives north of Slovyansk.
Russian forces made limited and localized attacks along contested frontlines around Kharkiv City but did not make any advances on June 27.
Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Southern Axis continue to force Russian troops to prioritize defensive operations along the line of contact.
Russian occupation authorities are taking steps to strengthen economic control of occupied territories and force Ukrainian civilians to switch to the ruble.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted a missile strike against Kyiv for the first time since April 29, likely to coincide with the ongoing G7 leadership summit.
Russian Colonel-General Gennday Zhidko has likely taken over the role of theatre commander of operations in Ukraine.
Russian forces continued attacks against the southern outskirts of Lysychansk and consolidated control of Severodonetsk and surrounding settlements.
Russian forces are conducting operations to the east of Bakhmut to maintain control of the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground assaults to the northwest of Slovyansk.
Russian forces intensified artillery strikes against Ukrainian positions along the Southern Axis.
Russian occupation authorities are escalating measures to stem Ukrainian partisan activity in occupied areas through increased filtration measures and the abduction of civilians.

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the leadership of its central and southern groups of forces fighting Ukraine has changed, confirming ISW’s previous assessment that the Russian high command is restructuring the leadership of operations in Ukraine.
Ukrainian intelligence officials emphasized that Belarus remains highly unlikely to join the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces have taken full control of Severodonetsk and are fighting within Lysychansk.
Russian forces made measured gains to the north and southeast of Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to advance southeast of Izyum toward Slovyansk.
Russian forces continued positional battles north of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces attempted to strengthen their defensive lines and recapture lost positions on the Southern Axis.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued to drive north to Lysychansk and have likely encircled Ukrainian troops in Hirske-Zolote.
Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces are fighting their last battles in the industrial zone of Severodonetsk before withdrawing from the city.
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations west of Izyum and north of Slovyansk. Russian forces will likely prioritize encircling Ukrainian troops in Lysychansk and interdicting remaining GLOCs northwest of the city before resuming a full-scale offensive operation on Slovyansk.
Ukrainian forces are continuing to launch counteroffensive operations along the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and are threatening Russian forces in Kherson City.
Ukrainian partisans continued to attack Russian collaborators in Kherson City.

Key Takeaways

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border but are unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine due to their low capabilities and the adverse domestic implications of military involvement on behalf of Russia.
Russian forces have likely reached the southern outskirts of Lysychansk and are reinforcing their grouping around Severodonetsk to complete the capture of both Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. These gains remain unlikely to provide Russian forces with a decisive edge in further operations in Ukraine and have further degraded Russian capabilities.
Russian forces are continuing efforts to encircle the Ukrainian grouping in Hirske and Zolote and are likely moving to take control of these settlements.
Russian forces have likely successfully interdicted Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 highway and are using recent gains along the highway to reinforce assaults on Lysychansk.
Russian forces amassed equipment and continued building defensive capabilities along the Southern Axis.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued to make gains to the south of Lysychansk and will likely reach the city in the coming days, although they are unlikely to quickly capture the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Slovyansk and made minor advances.
Russian forces intensified efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in order to support Russian operations towards Lysychansk.
Russian forces focused on defensive operations along the Southern Axis and may have made marginal gains within Mykolaiv Oblast.
Russian authorities are continuing measures to facilitate the economic integration of occupied areas.